Futures Thinking and Sustainable Development

_ Anthony Earley is the chairman and CEO of PG&E Corporation, the parent company of Pacific Gas and Electric. He spoke ahead of the UN Secretary-General's Climate Leadership Summit about the importance of California's climate policies and carbon pricing in encouraging a shift to clean energy solutions. 

By Stewart Elgie, Professor of Law & Economics at University of Ottawa and Chair of Sustainable Prosperity; Ross Beaty, Chairman of Pan American Silver Corp. and Alterra Power; and Richard Lipsey, Professor Emeritus of Economics at Simon Fraser University.   We often hear claims that a carbon tax would destroy jobs and growth. Yet the evidence from a Canadian province that actually passed such a tax – British Columbia – tells a very different story. The latest numbers from Statistics Canada show

Reducing emissions can generate better growth than old high-carbon model, says co-author of report, Lord Stern

Concerns about the short term costs and impacts of investment to address risks is paralysing action on climate change, writes Jonathan Grant

_ Henri Proglio is the chairman and CEO of Électricité de France (EDF). He spoke ahead of the UN Secretary-General's Climate Leadership Summit about the importance of carbon pricing for the electricity sector to move toward a low-carbon economy.

The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate
was set up to examine whether it is possible to achieve
lasting economic growth while also tackling the risks of
climate change.

The next 15 years will be critical, as the global economy
undergoes a deep structural transformation. It will not
be “business as usual”. The global economy will grow by
more than half, a billion more people will come to live in
cities, and rapid technological advance will continue to
change businesses and lives. Around US$90 trillion is likely
to be invested in infrastructure in the world’s urban, land
use and energy systems. How these changes are managed
will shape future patterns of growth, productivity and
living standards.

10-Point Action Plan

1. Accelerate a low-carbon transformation by integrating climate action and risk into strategic economic decision-making.
2. Create the confidence needed for global investment and climate action by entering into a strong, lasting and equitable international climate agreement.
3. Phase out subsidies for fossil fuels and agricultural inputs and incentives for urban sprawl.
4. Introduce strong, predictable carbon prices as part of good fiscal reform.
5. Substantially reduce the capital cost of low-carbon infrastructure investment.
6. Scale up innovation in key low-carbon and climate-resilient technologies and remove barriers to entrepreneurship and creativity.
7. Make connected and compact cities the preferred form of urban development.
8. Halt the deforestation of natural forests by 2030.
9. Restore at least 500 million hectares of degraded forests and agricultural land by 2030.
10. Accelerate the shift away from polluting coal-fired power generation.

The 2014 Low Carbon Economy Index (LCEI) shows an unmistakeable trend. For the sixth year running, the global economy has missed the decarbonisation target needed to limit global warming to 2 ̊C. Confronted with the challenge in 2013 of decarbonising at 6% a year, we managed only 1.2%. To avoid two degrees of warming, the global economy now needs to decarbonise at 6.2% a year, more than five times faster than the current rate, every year from now till 2100. On our current burn rate we blow our carbon budget by 2034, sixty six years ahead of schedule. This trajectory, based on IPCC data, takes us to four degrees of warming by the end of the century.